2023 BELONGS TO THE MOUNTAIN WEST

Styles make fights. That old adage spreads across sports but in few places is it more relevant than college football. With so many different teams and so many different minds influenced by different coaching philosophies and beliefs of what the proper way to play football is, rarely do you see two teams that look completely identical like you might in the NFL. Sure, conferences or divisions might pick up on certain trends based on that league’s most dominant units a la the air raid that swept the Big 12 in the 2010s or the several crimes against offensive football that dominate the B1G West to this day, but generally every team in America will have its own special flavor of football. Nowhere is this more true than this year’s Mountain West. As Power 5 conferences shift drastically, perhaps the most interesting race in 2023 resides in the Group of 5’s league out west, where four teams have a real chance to pull out a conference title as we enter the season’s home stretch. Air Force, UNLV, Fresno State and Wyoming all sit at 5-2 or better, with only Air Force remaining unbeaten. What makes this race special is not just the fact that only Wyoming vs Fresno and Wyoming vs Air Force have taken place head to head, but the fact that these teams create such intriguing stylistic matchups that have potential to defy even the most severe analytic discrepancies between these squads.

First and foremost, “styles make fights” comes into play here because, well, just look at these four offensive formations:

These teams are all in the same conference championship race with five weeks left in the season. Two of those plays were triple options.

We would begin by examining the favorite, Troy Calhoun’s powerhouse Air Force Falcons, but BULLYBALL contributor Matt Seese already covered them extensively here just a few weeks ago. To keep it brief, Air Force is essentially the same service academy triple option outfit they’ve always been, but with laxed restrictions on player weight and an injection of unique passing concepts, they’ve become a terror to defend against. On the defensive side of the ball, they’re no less of a nightmare to deal with, as evidenced by Navy mustering just 101 total yards in a 17-6 loss this past week. While QB Zac Larrier has been dealing with injuries the last few weeks, there’s been no indication that he’ll miss any important games as they head down the home stretch.

Elsewhere in the conference, UNLV is good at football for the first time in a long time. Bowl eligible for the first time since 2013, Barry Odom’s Rebels sit at 6-1 with their only loss coming at the allegedly cheating hands of the Michigan Wolverines. What UNLV brings to the table from an offensive standpoint is different from anyone else in the country. OC Brennan Marion’s “Go-Go” offense combines a triple option rushing attack from a number of outlandish formations with a passing game that features west coast staples. Freshman Jayden Maiava has taken control of the QB spot since incumbent starter Doug Brumfield was injured in Week 3, and their stable of impressive runningbacks is seemingly endless. UNLV’s offense employs a lot of frippery to run concepts that on their own aren’t very unique in the landscape of CFB. Against Nevada they rolled Maiava out to his right and TE waggle’d the Wolfpack to death, but with the level of window dressing and assignment confusion they can inflict upon a defense with their pre-snap looks, even the simplest plays become hard to defend.

UNLV travels to Fresno State this Saturday, where the 6-1 Bulldogs will look to overtake the ‘Rebs for 2nd in the conference. While the fancy stats per Game on Paper heavily favor the Bulldogs, it wouldn’t be particularly surprising to see UNLV’s varied rushing attack help them control the clock and stress the edges of Fresno’s run defense. Marion’s triple option doesn’t look like the standard service academy fare. Rarely will you see the Rebels go under center and try to kill you four yards at a time. This is a rushing offense that looks to hit home runs. Often with Maiava in the shotgun and a pair of RBs next to each other on his left or right, they tend to press the edges and let electric backs like Donavyn Lester or Jai’den “Jet” Thomas turn on the boosters. This is a rushing offense that ranks #27 in the country in EPA/play, although Fresno’s rushing defense ranks 19th in the country in success rate against the run. Still, if there’s anywhere UNLV can make some headroom, it’ll probably be on the ground.

On the other side of the ball, UNLV’s defense can best be described as… opportunistic. Scheme-wise they reek of Barry Odom’s influence, as the Arkansas-transfer filled group is constantly trying to make up for a lack of horsepower in the front four by playing a very shallow pair of linebackers and keeping their safeties in the parking lot for the most part. Teams have had no trouble throwing all over the Rebels on a down-to-down basis, but one thing they’ve excelled at is taking the ball away. They’ve forced 15 turnovers this season, rarely missing a chance to capitalize on an opponent’s mistake. Arizona transfer Jaxen Turner leads the way with three interceptions. For this week, Fresno’s passing game ranks 29th in the country in success rate. But even if that trend holds, a turnover or two could be potentially backbreaking for the Bulldogs. While UNLV will likely be at an immense talent disadvantage, particularly in the trenches, any defense that doesn’t let a turnover opportunity slip through their fingers will give a team that can score like they do a fighting chance. 

One of the key wildcards to consider for UNLV, by the way, is kicker Jose Pizano. The former soccer player is 27/27 on PATs and 18/19 on FGs this season, twice having nailed kicks at the buzzer to win games. In the college game especially, a reliable kicker is invaluable, as any time Odom’s team marches within the 35 they’re basically guaranteed points. Should UNLV wind up in the Mountain West Championship game, it’ll be on the backs of their run game, their kicker and the opportunistic nature of their defense. Vegas favors Fresno State by 9.5 (an immense betrayal), but there are definitely avenues to an upset victory for UNLV.

On the other side of that game sits Fresno State, the defending MWC Champions that may be playing without starting QB Mikey Keene this week. Keene has been both tremendously productive and efficient this season, so losing him for the week would make sledding slightly tougher against a rather exploitable UNLV passing defense. Logan Fife played in place of Keene last week against Utah State, and he performed admirably against a less than stellar defense. He provides a badly needed rushing aspect to his game, though, as Fresno’s horrible rushing offense looks even worse when you see the lack of tough defenses on their schedule thus far. Should Fife be able to mitigate some of that with his legs, it may serve to make up for the dropoff in passing from Keene’s injury. Fresno State is an air it out offense, ranking 7th in the country in pass plays per game. The Bulldogs’ offense is as west coast as it gets, often spreading a defense horizontally and attacking soft spots in zones or exploiting man coverage with simple rub routes and motion. This offense is designed to let a QB pick out his throw before the snap, and then let it rip at the top of his drop. This should be interesting this week in particular, as I’ve outlined the hyper-aggressive and opportunistic nature of the UNLV defense earlier in this piece. Should UNLV succeed in muddying up the reads for a backup QB, they may be able to find a couple of those turnovers they’ll probably need in order to pull the upset. This becomes especially important when you realize that Fresno’s rushing offense (117th in success rate) is not equipped to exploit UNLV’s 98th ranked run defense.

The defense for Fresno is ferocious, though. The Bulldogs rank 29th and 19th in success rate against the pass and the run respectively, and schematically they’re very multiple. Against some of Wyoming’s heavier looks, they walked both safeties into the box and produced a 5-4 look with a bear front, while they essentially lived in nickel against Utah State’s more spread attack. How they line up to stop Air Force’s triple option or Brennan Marion’s patented Go-Go offense remains to be seen, but it seems clear that DC Kevin Coyle knows what he’s doing. Fresno has the type of suffocating down-to-down defense that makes it very difficult for them to be blown out, as even their loss to Wyoming came right down to the wire. With or without Keene, Fresno has the goods to beat anybody in the Mountain West. 

Speaking of Wyoming, their home win over Fresno is keeping them alive in the race, while a 7 point loss to Air Force looks pretty good these days. What the Cowboys do offensively is not fancy. They’re happy to get in an offset I from pistol and hand the ball to either of their dynamic little dudes at RB, Harrison Waylee and Jamari Ferrell. They also love to use QB Andrew Peasley like a half-powered Josh Allen, specializing in running QB power and launching rockets up the seam. The advanced stats aren’t particularly fond of Wyoming’s brand of football, but wins over Texas Tech, Appalachian State and Fresno State are hard to argue with. What Wyoming can do that UNLV can’t (they meet in Vegas on November 10th) is bully their opponent. Their rushing offense operates in stark contrast to UNLV’s, whereas the Rebels may rely on fakes and frippery to create confusion among the opposition’s linebackers, Wyoming’s guards will take you right to the scene of the ass kicking you’re about to receive. Watch here (5:47) as Fresno comes out in a similar look that we highlighted earlier, with a safety walking up to the linebacker level creating a true 44 front. Wyoming hits the edges with three very large men pulling to the left at terminal velocity. You can flow with them if you’d like, but you won’t have fun.

This is the essence of 2023 Wyoming football. They aren’t too difficult to figure out, but they’re no fun to defend against regardless. While Wyoming will need more help than the other teams in the race on account of already losing to Air Force, they’ve already played spoiler with their win over Fresno State a few weeks ago. They’re a load to deal with on offense and a force of chaos if nothing else on defense. Wyoming’s defense to the naked eye isn’t too dissimilar from UNLV’s schematically. They thrive on muddying the pre-snap read with plenty of second level defenders crowding the line of scrimmage, making a QB and OL take their best guess on where the pressure might be coming from on any given snap. They’ve accumulated 14 sacks from 9 different players this year, manufacturing pressure through scheme rather than man-on-man victories up front. Behind Peasley’s talent, their hellish running game and a frantic defense, Wyoming remains firmly in contention despite being at the mercy of Air Force’s remaining schedule. 

Even if you delve into the doldrums of the Mountain West you’d find a deeply disturbed Utah State team that holds both a positive point differential and a 3-5 record. Boise State boasts a top 10 rushing offense and the 94th ranked passing offense, which is pretty hard for a non-triple option offense to pull off. Nevada has put up only 110 points this season, which puts them firmly in the running as “worst team in the country”, but their 6-0 win over Utah State keeps them out of last place in the conference. Colorado State has chronic “we can’t play a normal game” disease. In what has overall been a tremendous year for Group of 5 football, the Mountain West has the potential to provide a special end to its season with this cast of freaks that God himself must have assembled for maximum entertainment. If you find yourself bored with the homogenized conference races featuring the same players as always in the Power 5, I highly suggest throwing on FS1 late this Saturday and catching the suddenly crucial game between Barry Odom’s army of Arkansas transfers and PAC-12 grad students and Fresno State’s deeply prepared warriors.

College football comes in all flavors, and no amount of intervention from TV executives can take that away from the true degenerates that could not only name Utah State’s head coach, but can tell you exactly why he shouldn’t survive the 2023 season with his job. It’s important that even as the sport shifts towards the massive TV money with the superconferences and expanded playoff on the horizon, there’s still room for the prime-cut Group of 5 nonsense that has long been the backbone of the sport for real CFB heads. Every year there’s a new player, team or storyline that becomes a hyperfixation for a section of fans online. 2023 belongs to the Mountain West.