BULLYBALL TOP 25 WEEK THIRTEEN
We are nearly to the finish line. After a pretty chalky week of results, there were still some surprising finishes that resulted in some shifting within the Top 25.
Michigan remains on top
Despite it being very ugly, Michigan went on the road to Happy Valley without Jim Harbaugh and knocked off top 10 Penn State, 24-15, to remain at the top of the rankings. While JJ McCarthy didn’t have much effect on the game, throwing for just 60 yards on 7-of-8 passing, it was Michigan’s ground game that got the job done when necessary while Penn State’s offense remained stuck in the mud as it has against any above average defense this season.
Biggest Riser: Missouri | 8-2 (23 to 14)
After predictably losing to Georgia last week on the road, Mizzou bounced right back and dominated Tennessee, running all over what had been the best run defense in the SEC. Tennessee came into that game allowing just 90 yards on the ground per game to the tune of 2.9 yards per carry. Cody Schrader laughed at that, running for 205 yards on 35 carries and added another 116 through the air. Tennessee’s road woes continue under Josh Heupel, but Missouri is a legitimately good team with a fantastic run defense and ground game. I think it’s fair to say I’ve been underrating them a bit, but this win justifies everything they’ve been showing on the field.
The Reason for Alabama > Texas
Texas beat Alabama in week two by 10 points in Tuscaloosa. That result happened.
That being said, the formula’s biggest hitch - sort of - is that it doesn’t have a discrepancy for head to head matchups. It ranks solely off of the basis of the game results, advanced metrics such as EPA per play gained and allowed, yards per play gained and allowed, and success rate for and against with a week to week adjusted conference weight. I’ve been hard on the SEC this year as it’s quite easily the most overvalued conference in the country by the media, but it’s still much stronger than the Big 12.
For Alabama to be over a team that beat them comfortably, what’s happened since that’s made Alabama’s résumé better than the Longhorns? It’s been Alabama’s ranked conference wins. While Alabama has played tight games against not so great teams, so has Texas and pretty much the entirety of the top 10. Alabama, by my current rankings, has wins over the 11th, 17th, and 20th ranked teams in the country by double digits, holding two very good offenses to 20 points or fewer, and holding LSU’s nation-best offense under 30 points for just the second time this season.
The defense is among the best in the country, ranking 25th in EPA per play per collegefootballdata.com’s PPA/play measure, and 8th in success rate against at 34.7%.
The offense has been a work in progress, namely Jalen Milroe, but he’s been fantastic since getting benched against USF the week after the Texas loss. Since the Ole Miss game in week four, Alabama’s offense has gone from a problem to complimenting its defense perfectly, ranking 22nd in the country in EPA/play.
As for Texas, it’s unfair to penalize them for winning games, but they’ve squeaked by teams they simply should be thumping on. Style points do matter, no matter what system you use, whether it’s the CFP’s committee or the old BCS computer-generated version (which also ranks Alabama over Texas, for what it’s worth), and one possession wins over teams outside of the top 50 like Houston and TCU on the road won’t garner the strength of game score in the formula as Alabama’s close road win over a Texas A&M team still hanging around the top 30, and outside of Arkansas, Alabama has handled their business comfortably against teams outside of the top 30.
Where I think this can be seen as a flaw from my perspective is Texas’ neutral site loss to Oklahoma is penalized more than Alabama’s loss to Texas at home. Why this is simply comes down to Texas simply being ranked higher than Oklahoma across the season, and Texas being ranked higher makes Alabama’s loss to them less of a penalty, as backwards as that sounds.
Personally, a whole body of work matters a lot more to me than a singular head to head result. Yes, that game does matter, but so do the other eleven in deciding who should potentially reach the playoff.
So…Louisville at 16…Let me explain…
The margin between two-loss Missouri at 13 and one-loss Louisville at 16 is razor thin, so thin that it’s double the difference between Michigan and Ohio State. What keeps Louisville down is the brutal three-score loss at Pitt. Pitt is a two-win team who has just one FBS level win this season: Louisville. Losing 38-17 to a team that frankly hasn’t looked competitive from the jump this season will continue to hold Louisville down until the end. More often than not, one loss won’t hold a team down like this, but that loss has the single lowest game score of any team in the top 25 by quite a wide margin.
Team of the Week: #46 UCF Knights
Who saw *that* coming? There’s upsets and then there’s what UCF did to Oklahoma State. UCF loaded the box, daring Oklahoma State to do anything but hand the ball to Ollie Gordon, and it worked brilliantly. Gordon came into the game averaging 186 rushing yards over his last six games (that’s 1,116 yards), and UCF held him to 25 yards on 12 carries. They totally shut down the Pokes in every facet. Gus and his guys had an outstanding game plan.
Player of the Week: Jayden Daniels | QB | LSU
The first player in college football history to pass for over 350 yards and rush for over 200 in a single game. 606 total yards, five total touchdowns. Give him his Heisman.
Group-of-Five NY6 Mini Power Rankings:
James Madison Dukes (10-0) | Sun Belt | (#15)**
Liberty Flames (10-0) | Mountain West | (#23)
SMU Mustangs (8-2) | American (#24)
Troy Trojans (8-2) | Sun Belt (#25)
Tulane Green Wave | American (#31)
Toledo Rockets (10-1) | MAC (#35)
Fresno State Bulldogs (8-2) | Mountain West (#37)
UNLV Rebels (8-2) | Mountain West (#41)
Air Force Falcons (8-2) | Mountain West (#44)
Memphis Tigers (8-2) | American (#45)
** - James Madison currently cannot play in a bowl game due to NCAA’s outdated divisional transitional bylaws