AIR FORCE: A TRIPLE THREAT FOR A NEW YEARS SIX BERTH
Troy Calhoun has been around Air Force for a while. When he played college ball at the Academy, he was just one of two freshmen to letter on the team’s 1985 12-1 squad that posted a top 10 AP Poll finish and ended their season with a 24-16 win over Texas in the Bluebonnet Bowl.
Flash forward 22 years, and Calhoun would be hired as Air Force’s head football coach. Air Force is like college football’s Steelers when it comes to head coaches. Only six different men have coached at the program since its inaugural Division-I season in 1957. Fisher DeBerry is the Academy’s longest tenured coach at 22 years while some guy named Bill Parcells is their shortest, coaching just one season in 1978 before leaving after a 3-8 season to become the New York Giants linebackers coach. Surely he amounted to nothing.
Ken Hatfield led the program from 1979 to 1983, and under him was the aforementioned Fisher DeBerry, a future member of the College Football Hall of Fame, as quarterbacks coach at first and eventually offensive coordinator. DeBerry is a Hall of Famer for good reason as he ushered in what has become the offensive staple at Air Force ever since: the triple option. DeBerry took over as head coach in 1984, and into the sky went Air Force.
Under DeBerry, the entire dynamic of Air Force’s offense and the program as a whole changed. DeBerry’s innovation was the “flexbone” option attack and it was credited as “breaking the wishbone”. DeBerry would take the halfbacks typically lined up in the backfield in the wishbone and split them out as wingbacks. Not only has it remained the backbone of Air Force’s offense for over 40 years, it continues to produce among the nation’s best ground attacks year in and year out. It was one of the two primary triple option variants that were run to great effect that wasn’t the wishbone, the other being Tom Osbourne’s triple option attack out of the I-formation at Nebraska.
From 1981 to 1996, Air Force averaged over 300 yards on the ground in 12 seasons. It became the school’s calling card during the wishbone boom in the seventies and eighties, but while they never boasted the talent that much larger programs who were running and perfecting the wishbone like Texas, Alabama, and Oklahoma were, it was that innovation and DeBerry’s demands of a military-like precision that made Air Force stand out. I mean, who better to execute an offense that demands such execution than the actual Air Force?
Today, Troy Calhoun powers on with the triple option he learned as a quarterback under DeBerry out of the very same flexbone he ran four decades ago. However, it’s no longer in a boom phase, but rather it’s become a dying breed. It’s the way of innovation and evolution. Just because Steve Spurrier’s heavy air attack at Florida got destroyed by Tom Osbourne’s triple option ground attack in the 1995 National Championship doesn’t mean it’s forever going to be the preeminent offense.
Football always evolves. Hell, the option evolved. From the belly of the slow, methodical triple option attacks that were meant to break the will of a defense, the read option in an up-tempo style was born, made to break scoreboards. Though his later career has been much maligned, it was Rich Rodriguez who made huge strides to bring tempo into the fold. The read option became the next evolutionary phase with the likes of Pat White, Dennis Dixon, Vince Young, Lamar Jackson, and of course Brad Smith, dominating with it spanning over a decade. This eventually led to the birth of the run-pass option, or RPO for short.
Remember the Kick-Six? Who doesn’t? Well, Manny Diaz remembers that game, but for this play instead. In an article with SB Nation, Diaz credits this play, which tied the game at 28, to be the ultimate evolution of the option. When Auburn quarterback Nick Marshall keeps on a read option, he breaks outside of the defensive end, but before he crosses the line of scrimmage, he throws the ball to Sammie Coates who easily got behind two perimeter defenders that broke to tackle Marshall, and the rest is history. It’s evolution, baby.
However, despite it all, the flexbone is thankfully here to stay, and it’s as dominant as its ever been for Air Force under Calhoun. Despite losing quarterback Haaziq Daniels who had engineered back to back 10-win seasons, Zac Larrier has seamlessly slid into the system, and it certainly helps that the fifth year senior has been with the Academy since 2019. Larrier is on pace to throw fewer than 60 times this season. That’s pretty typical for a triple option QB, but Daniels just logged back to back seasons with 80-plus pass attempts, so it seems to be a pretty substantial decrease.
Just to put it in perspective, Daniels threw the ball 54 times in 2020, a six game season. Daniels had 11 games in his career where he threw 10 or more passes, and six of them were in games they lost. We’ve yet to see Air Force trail a game into the fourth quarter yet, so it could be subject to change, but I wouldn’t bet on it.
That being said, what makes Larrier so dynamic is when Air Force decides to throw.
Larrier leads the nation in average depth of target, or ADoT for short, among all quarterbacks with at least 25 dropbacks at 16.8 yards. Larrier is 11-of-16 on passes beyond 10 yards. Again, he’s attempted just 19 passes and it’s entirely why these stats are so gaudy. It’s awesome. At the end of the day, it’s not all that different than their normal offense. It’s a read, just more down to down. There’s a pretty clear-cut process for this, too. Play action is extremely effective regardless of a team’s ability to run the ball. Now imagine “play action” for a team that runs the ball nearly 60 times a game out of option attack formations. It doesn’t even have to be a fake hand-off to act as play action, the defense is naturally drawn in already.
Notice how Utah State’s linebacker (#20) gets sucked in and how the safety (#6) hesitates briefly before breaking on #23, Dane Kinamon. It’s funny how we just talked about how well this team throws down the field and we’re breaking down a motion flare to the flat, but it was extremely effective in picking up a first down in a drive that ultimately ended with a touchdown. They ran this exact play against San Jose State on a fourth-and-short and converted it as well.
First off, a special thank you to YouTube channel “Flexbone101” for some of the clips in this article. Now you’re seeing why Larrier is so efficient down the field. Look at how many men are in the box on the defense. Now watch how the deep safety plays this. He’s completely caught off balance, angling his entire body towards the wide hash and sideline. This essentially becomes single coverage, and #13 for Air Force, redshirt freshman Jared Roznos, is licking his chops. He cuts right in front of his face, the safety can’t get his hips around in time, and it’s a wide open throw that ends up going for 49 yards on another scoring drive. Naturally, this all happens because of the ground game, and let me tell ya, it’s a special ground game. There’s a three-headed monster within this triple option attack, starting with Larrier.
The Maestro: Zac Larrier
Larrier is primarily a runner as the quarterback tends to be in a triple option attack, and this play design in particular is diabolical. Running a QB sweep out of flexbone with a pulling guard creates three lead blockers. It worked a bit better later in the game when Larrier cut inside the pulling guard far sooner and picked up 21. A big component to what makes this click is all of this is set up from the sideline between Calhoun and Larrier. Air Force communicates extremely well pre-snap while in formation from sideline to quarterback. That ability to get set in formation, read a defense, and pick it apart before the ball is even snapped is so crucial to the efficiency of this offense and its ability to pick apart mismatches.
The Chain Mover: Emmanuel Michel
Runningback Emmanuel Michel leads the team in carries, yards, and touchdowns and is essentially the primary back in the flexbone, lined up almost exclusively behind Larrier. The bruising back the biggest of the bunch at 215 pounds, and he gets down hill in a hurry. Being able to effectively run between the A and B gaps the ways that Air Force does specifically with Michel is what makes this attack so back breaking. No one wants to tackle 215 pounds deep into games after they’ve already seen 40+ run plays up to that point.
That is how you finish a run, and this is the way Michel runs the ball every time he touches it. He drags bodies in the trenches for three, four, five, six yards a crack early in games, and then the big plays on the outside happen because of them, and through that, Michel has found a great complimentary partner in crime.
Lightning Bolt: John Lee Eldridge III
Perhaps the highlight of the college football season was this run by John Lee Eldridge III. Eldridge is the lightning to Michel’s thunder. Averaging 9.0 yards per carry on the season, John Lee Eldridge III is the smaller speed back used primarily to get to the edges on sweeps and option pitches. With 4.3-4.4 speed, Eldridge III has racked up 278 yards and three touchdowns on 31 carries, primarily getting into space.
A major reason for why Air Force has been able to find so much success in recent years is by relaxing on their historically strict weight regulations for any cadet in the Academy. Let’s go look at Air Force’s offensive line in 2015 (all weights gathered from sports-reference.com): LT Matt Rochell (270 lbs), LG Colin Sandor (272 lbs), C Dylan Vail (280 lbs), RG A.J. Ruechel (265 lbs), RT Sevrin Remmo (255 lbs). That’s an average weight of 268.4 pounds up front. For comparison, every team in the SEC in 2015 was averaging 290 pounds at the lightest to 321 pounds at the heaviest. Every team in the Mountain West averaged heavier than 293 pounds, and seven teams averaged over 300.
Despite a significant weight disadvantage, Air Force has had tons of great seasons in the past, but when they come up against tougher competition whether it be bowl games or the better teams in the Mountain West, historically they had struggled. Until 2017.
Although the specific year the relaxing of the weight strictness is unknown, I like to single out 2019 as the first year with the first crop of upperclassmen linemen who were allowed to bulk up. Using the starting offensive line that Air Force had against Washington State, that unit averaged 280 pounds. A lot heavier than 268.4, and while still much smaller than the norm, it was proof of very clear improvement up front which equals improvement long-term.
Now in 2023, we are seeing an Air Force offensive line no longer playing at an extreme weight disadvantage. While it still is among the smallest units in the country, it’s no longer the smallest, and it’s no longer the smallest by 20 pounds.
The tackles Adam Karas and Kaleb Holcomb are the only two players on the line under 300 pounds, coming in at 285 and 270 pounds respectively. The entire interior, however, is all 300 or above. Left guard Wesley Ndago clocks in at 300, as does center Thor Pagliadong, and right guard Ethan Jackman tips the scales the heaviest at 310 pounds. This is an overwhelming upgrade and Troy Calhoun’s biggest unit by far, and they’re all seniors. The combination of size and experience make for a big reason the stock in this team is much easier to buy into than it historically has been. With a bigger line, it’s become easier for this triple option/flexbone attack to not just grind long drives down the field, but chew up clock and fatigue an entire defense.
Clock Domination
That run by Eldridge III we talked about earlier encompasses all things Air Force, and it served as the end of all hope for San Jose State in that game, but it was the previous two drives that made this possible. Air Force trailed 20-17 at halftime to San Jose State. They were running well in the first half, but they just couldn’t get stops.
San Jose State wouldn’t score a point the rest of the game. Here’s how:
Third Quarter Time of Possession (plays ran):
Air Force: 14:10 (24 plays)
San Jose State: 0:50 (3 plays)
This is a major piece of what Air Force can do with the new clock rules no longer allowing a clock stoppage after every first down unless it’s under two minutes at the end of each half . It’s catered directly towards what Air Force does well: run efficiently and run the clock.
Air Force has 14 drives of five minutes or longer. 13 of them have ended in points. The only one that didn’t was a 9 minute, 38 second drive that chewed the rest of the clock to the game’s end against Utah State. A capability to do that against Mountain West defenses virtually makes them upset-proof this season.
Troy Calhoun doesn’t have to apologize for the rule changes, and a rule change that helps smaller schools is pretty unusual. Air Force has a lighter schedule the rest of the way, but next week against a Wyoming defense at home is no light work. The one thing working in the favor of the Falcons is that Wyoming has inverse dominant traits that would help them against most every other team in the conference, but not against Air Force. Wyoming has been terrific against the pass, but they’ve allowed three 200 yard rushing games. That being said, they only allowed 38 rushing yards against Fresno State in their upset win. If Air Force can pass their toughest test yet, there’s a good chance they go unbeaten heading into their season finale against Boise State.
Air Force is changing the ground game in college football by not changing at all. All innovation overlaps, and the triple option is trickling its way back into power conference football thanks to Lance Leipold and Kansas. With a win over Wyoming this Saturday, Air Force will have itself positioned well not just for a Mountain West Championship berth, but for a New Year’s Six opportunity as well. The triple option once dominated the landscape, and Troy Calhoun just might get it back on the national stage after all.