BULLYBALL TOP 25: WEEK 5
Week five is done, and that means preseason weights are gone…we have a new number one, folks.
What does that mean? In the first iteration of this, we talked about the preseason weights, but now, we’ve dropped those in favor of season weights because we know way more about these teams than any preseason formula could. For example, Jacksonville State was not highly thought of within preseason metrics (near 120), but they’re now 5-1 and near the top of Conference USA, so their ranking of 67 reflects that. Then there’s a team like LSU, who by all accounts was a top 10 team preseason, and they had been weighted as such. They’ve now dropped two games where they allowed 45 and 55 points respectively, and they are dinged for that and no longer are in the Top 25. So, without further ado, let’s get look at our new number one.
Dawn of a New Era in Spokane
We talked last week about how the gap between Georgia and everyone else was dwindling, and now it’s officially closed. Head coach Kalen DeBoer and Heisman front-runner Michael Penix (everyone point and laugh at Indiana) are orchestrating an offense that’s averaging 46 points per game in a conference that is widely considered to be the deepest in the country this year at the top. They’ve dominated pretty much everyone they’ve played, and even the Arizona road win last week was not as close as the seven point margin suggests. This offense is averaging 569.4 total yards and 446.4 passing yards per game, both bests in the country, with a success rate north of 53%.
I do have reservations about this defense, but the offense is undeniable. That being said, now come the tests. After a bye this week, Washington plays Oregon at home. If they win that game, they’re going to start 8-0 before hitting the road to play USC, come back home to play Utah, head to Corvallis to face Oregon State, before finishing up the season at home for the Apple Cup. Again, this is a deep conference, and with five ranked opponents left, there’s still a lot of meat on the bone for the Huskies, but they appear more than willing to take that challenge head on.
Biggest Riser: Oklahoma (16 to 10)
I think we can definitively say Texas is back as they climbed from 7 to 2, but with the Red River Showdown looming, it’s Brent Venables’ Sooners who have worked their way into the top 10 ahead of the biggest game of the Big 12 season. Venables is a defensive mastermind, and in year two, he’s been able to chisel out a defense of his likeness, and they are dominating. Though still big play susceptible - see Iowa State’s touchdowns - the stifling defense is matched by an equally explosive offense led by Dillon Gabriel who leads all FBS quarterbacks in success rate on dropbacks at 61%. It’s a huge ask for OU to pull one out against Texas, but they’re substantially better equipped for it this season.
Who’s New: The Mountain West
Within the input of in-season weights on top of results, the Mountain West finds itself with two teams ranked inside the top 20, a first of any Group-of-Five conference for me since I started doing this in 2021. Fresno State is here off the back of a road win at Purdue and a total demolition of pretty much everyone else on their schedule, including Arizona State. That’s two power conference wins in five weeks. Their game at Wyoming this week is appointment television.
As for Air Force, it’s less of who they’re beating and more of how they’re beating them. Number one rushing offense in the country, 37.6 points per game to just 12.2 allowed, second in total yards allowed per game, top 15 in yards per play allowed at 4.3, and they’re doing it while controlling the clock at over 36 minutes per game. The flexbone is a thing of beauty, and Air Force is clicking on all cylinders right now. They have a very light schedule with two big tests bookending their remaining games with some fun challenges in between (Colorado State’s passing attack, UNLV). On October 14, they face Wyoming and then they head to Boise State to end the season.
Who’s Gone?
LSU Tigers
LSU falls from 10 to out of the Top 25 in one fell swoop. A shift in data and two brutal losses will do that.
Clemson Tigers
Again, games matter, and losing two games when a team’s lofty preseason weights are dropped off as well is enough to fall.
Wisconsin Badgers
The “he loves me, he loves me not” team of the year. This is the second time Wisconsin has been dropped from the Top 25.
Tulane Green Wave
I fully anticipate seeing Tulane work their way back up if they can start putting it on these lesser teams of the AAC. They have a big résumé booster upcoming if they can beat Memphis on the road on 10/13, and they have a really good shot at winning out from there.
Team of the Week: #71 Baylor Bears
From the ashes of what was going to be a nail in the coffin of Dave Aranda came a 28-point comeback from out of nowhere. Baylor has not played well all season, and when faced with a 35-7 deficit at UCF in the third quarter, all hope for any level of a positive season was gone. Then the comeback began to materialize, and the Bears actually looked like a Baylor team we’d seen in years past. An incredible comeback win that earns them Team of the Week.
Player of the Week: Ray Davis | RB | Kentucky
Want to talk about impressive? How’s 26 carries for 280 yards and three touchdowns against Florida sound? Ray Davis easily wins POTW for week five as Kentucky continues to build a strong 2023.
Group-of-Five NY6 Mini Power Rankings:
Fresno State Bulldogs (5-0) | Mountain West | (#16)
Air Force Falcons (5-0) | Mountain West | (#19)
James Madison Dukes (5-0) | Sun Belt (#33)
Tulane Green Wave (4-1) | American (#34)
Liberty Flames (4-0) | Conference-USA (#37)
Marshall Thundering Herd (4-0) | Sun Belt (#41)
Ohio Bobcats (4-1) | MAC (#45)
Memphis Tigers (4-1) | American (#47)
Troy Trojans (3-2) | Sun Belt (#51)
Georgia Southern (4-1) | Sun Belt (#53)