Pistons 21st Pick: Six Names to Monitor
Bennett Stirtz, PG/SG, Iowa
Bennett Stirtz is a 6 ‘4, 22 year old senior guard out of University of Iowa. Stirtz' draft stock begins with, but not limited to, his incredible shooting beyond the arc and touch around the basket. This season, Stirtz shot an incredible 70.5% at the rim and 46.9% on all other 2PA to go along with just under 36% from three on 11.7 3PA per 100 possessions (barttorvik.com).
While 36% isn’t some gaudy number, his shooting priors, FT%, as well as volume are strong indicators for belief in the transition to the next level. Stirtz is also a floor-general to the highest degree, boasting a 24.9% assist percentage and 11.9% turnover percentage, equating to a 2.4 A/TO ratio on the season (barttorvik.com). Both of these aspects outline the NBA appeal for Stirtz.
Stirtz's ability to manipulate ball-screen defenders to find creation avenues is advanced. Using bumps, rescreens and refusals, and of course his shooting gravity, Stirtz is able to force defenders into tough positions. Without an abundance of athleticism, Stirtz largely relies on his craft to get by defenders, and was quite impressive at maintaining his handle through contact and finishing at the rim.
His use of ball fakes and hesitations freeze defenders and his speedy release allows him to get good looks off against tight defense. Iowa’s offense ran through Stirtz every possession, which is also a testament to his conditioning and efficiency. By watching one game, this becomes abundantly clear. Starting together at DII Northwest Missouri State, then to Drake University and finally the University of Iowa, Bennett Stirtz and Head Coach Ben McCollum have been through the ranks of college hoops.
Throughout, McCollum’s offense has been tailored to fit Stirtz skillset. With constant ball-screens and weak-side movement, all through Stirtz, to try and get down-hill and create advantageous situations. Iowa ranked as one of the slowest High-Major programs in pace of play, just as McCollum designed.
With an offense completely built for Stirtz success, this could be seen as a negative when transitioning into a likely lesser role in the association. Stirtz doesn't have the quickest first step or an overwhelming handle to easily get by on-ball defenders. His only average height and wingspan may limit his ability to get shots off, finish over and/or defend NBA-size. As an older prospect (almost 23 on draft night), his threshold for development is likely lower than younger guards in his draft range.
Though, his quick rise from DII hoops to first round prospect status may suggest otherwise. Defensively Stirtz will likely be neutral at best. With his aforementioned height and weight he will likely struggle with bigger guards and wings and he isn’t much of a stock creator, boasting only a 3.1% stock percentage his most recent season. His 6’6 wingspan and a tick down in usage may result in a bit more hope on that end of the floor, but defense will never be his calling card.
For the Detroit Pistons, Stirtz would ideally provide much needed stabilized ball-handling, decision making and volume shooting with direct avenues to early contribution and playing time. As shown in the playoffs, the creation burden currently on Cade Cunningham is likely too large. Turnovers and off-ball shooting became glaring weaknesses that often led to bogged down possessions that ended in bad shots or ‘grenades.’ Stirtz addition, especially as an older prospect, may be able to clear up some of these issues early in his career. With his ability to shoot on and off the ball while also potentially absorbing that additional creation burden, Stirtz could be an ideal fit in Detroit.
2. Cameron Carr, G/F, Baylor
Wings upon wings upon wings…
Cameron Carr is a 6 ‘5, 21 year old sophomore from Baylor who spent his first collegiate stint at Tennessee where he only played 18 total games in his first two “seasons”. However, this year, in his first real season playing minutes Carr took a huge leap, averaging 18.9 / 5.8 / 2.6 on 61.8 TS%. Carr is your prototypical off-ball athletic wing who can shoot, cut or attack closeouts with some additional defensive versatility.
Carr has a unique statistical profile, shooting 10.6 3PA per 100 possessions and just over 50 dunk attempts, Carr is one of only four High Major players since 2008 to do so (barttorvik.com).
The other three players, Mikal Bridges, Ochai Agbaji, and Bennedict Mathurin all were lottery picks, albeit all with quite different career paths and outcomes. Carr’s appeal as a prospect goes beyond the offensive side of the ball.
Despite someone of his height and slender frame (only 184 Ibs), Carr has proven to be a strong rebounder, recording a 17.6% defensive rebounding percentage, as well as an impressive weakside shot-blocker (3.9 BLK%), using his 7 ‘1 wingspan and athleticism to meet defenders above the rim (barttorvik.com). While his POA defense needs work, as his high hips and lack of lower-body flexibility limit his screen navigation and ability to stay in front of quicker guards, his length helps offset some of these potential flaws.
The biggest concerns around Cameron Carr is his non-assisted scoring ability, as well as some additional defensive question marks. Carr is quite limited as a ball-handler, with a high handle and weight concerns he often gets pushed off his line on drives. He doesn’t possess the quickest first or second step to get by the initial defender and his left hand is shaky at best, almost always driving right when given the opportunity. His pull-up jumper has largely mixed results, but he has positive projections for an off-ball creator. Carr has the ability to make simple reads, such as swings or dump-downs, but most of his playmaking showed when attacking during off-ball actions.
Defensively, Carr may have some trouble translating to the professional level as his frame is not NBA ready. At 6 '5, 184 Ibs, he is likely limited to defending only two positions early in his career, and still will be overwhelmed by quicker two-guards or stronger wings. Though, with NBA strength and conditioning this can likely be improved.
For the Detroit Pistons, Carr’s addition would theoretically fill a need in spacing and shooting from the wings. Carr’s is able to shoot from well beyond NBA-range with a high-release and good elevation off the catch.
His shooting form will need to be sped up a bit, but the mechanics look clean when set. Carr has shown some glimpses of movement-shooting, though will likely be more of a spot-up threat in the future. Also, with the pace the Pistons play at, Carr is great at running the wing in transition and finishing strong over defenders. As a high-volume three point shooter, rebounder and weakside defender, Cameron Carr could provide plenty of value alongside the Pistons struggling shooters at the wing positions.
3.Allen Graves, F, Santa Clara
There may not be a more polarizing player in the NBA draft than 20 year old Allen Graves. Standing at 6 '9, 225 Ibs, Graves was the WCC 6th Man of The Year for Santa Clara.
While starting only four games, Graves turned plenty of heads in NBA front offices as his all around skill level, feel and statistical profile.
Despite playing in a lesser conference with limited minutes Graves' production, especially towards the end of the season, became increasingly apparent. With a seven-foot wingspan and 8 ‘10 standing reach to go with his size, Graves fits the mold of a prototypical four in the NBA, however, the main conversation amongst both Graves fans and detractors is how his game will translate to the professional level.
The discussion about Allen Graves has to start with his statistical production this season, boasting a 5% block percentage and 4.9% steal percentage, numbers which have only been replicated four other times since 2008 (barttorvik.com).
He also displayed incredible rebounding ability, with a 13.9% offensive rebound percentage and 20% defensive rebound, placing him in the 99th and 74th percentile respectfully (draftbllr.com).
Graves’ ability to be productive defensively and control the glass are some of his better attributes. While these numbers fall a bit during his top-50 quality games, Graves’ capacity to impact games doing the “dirty work” is apparent.
The Santa Clara wing is also an incredible connective playmaker, ending the season with a 2.5 A/TO ratio.
Whether out of Dribble Hand-Off scenarios, attacking closeouts or punishing help on post-ups, Graves can hit cutters and dump-downs, cross passes to weak-side shooters or make plays in the short role.
His malleability offensively allows him to fit in many roles on that side of the floor, though on-ball creation concerns may limit someone of this ability. However, despite these qualms, Graves still remained extremely efficient, shooting 63.3% at the rim, 44.6% on all other 2PA, and 40.7% from deep (barttorvik.com).
As mentioned previously, this season as a red-shirt freshman Graves only started four games and played just 57% of the team's total minutes (barttorvik.com). Despite the incredible statistical profile, the sample size is quite limited and not against the highest competition. Graves also needs to greatly reduce his fouling, getting called 5.3 times per 40 minutes.
He is also just an okay athlete.
While the NBA combine is largely unimportant in regards to actual basketball ability, Graves athletic performance was subpar at best. This leads to questions regarding positional versatility, high-level outcomes and the general translation to a league consisting of exceptional athletes.
One of these concerns is his on-ball creation ability and upside. Most of Graves' field goals were assisted, including 100% of his 3PA (barttorvik.com), and his offense was largely built around post-ups or off-ball action. While this isn’t inherently bad, it can be hard to project his offensive upside without perimeter self-creation.
Graves likely won’t be quick enough to blow by defenders on-ball or strong enough to bully other bigs in the paint, which makes it hard to project him as more than a high-level role player at the next level.
For the Detroit Pistons, with an established superstar in Cade Cunningham, a defensive ace in Ausar Thompson and a definite defensive culture in place, surrounding them with cost-controlled impact players should be a necessity. While, as mentioned earlier, the sample with Graves is small in regards to other prospects in this draft, few can match the production Graves displayed in that sample this season.
With needs at the backup four spot, Graves spot up defense, touch and off-ball creation should mesh well with the other Piston cornerstones.
4.Isaiah Evans, G, Duke
If you want shooting, Isaiah Evans provides that at a premium.
Standing at 6’ 6 186 pounds, Evans is a lights-out shooter who has been an important cog within a couple of very competitive Duke teams over the last two seasons.
This year, going into his sophomore season he was given much more responsibility and showed an immense amount of improvement in a multitude of areas. However, Evans' NBA appeal is in direct correlation with his elite shooting ability, shooting an absurd 15.6 3PA per 100 possessions with a 65.1% 3Pr (barttorvik.com). While 36% from three this season may not standout, his shooting gravity alone bends defenses.
His freshman season, Evans was cast into a backup role, averaging just under 14 minutes per game. However, even then his objective on offense was clear; shoot the basketball. Last season Evans posted a 81.4% 3Pr (!!!) and converted 41.6% from beyond the arc (barttorvik.com). This year, despite the still high 3Pr, Evans has diversified his scoring profile quite a bit.
While his overall efficiency has dropped slightly, likely due to his 3PT% dropping some with increased usage, he took a significant amount more shots at the rim and inside the arc and finished at a much greater efficiency. While the increase in FGA is an obvious outcome with additional minutes per game, Evans ability to scale up his usage into more than just a movement shooter improves his status as a prospect.
This season Evans shot 68.9% at the rim including 22 dunks with only 38.7% being assisted (barttorvik.com). However, as mentioned earlier, Isaiah Evans' status as an NBA prospect is based on his high-level off-ball shooting. Evans has the ability to run off screens or DHOs going either direction, get on balance and get his shot off and his height, quick trigger and confidence force defense to stay attached and close out quickly.
While potentially an NBA ready shooter today, NBA defenses have become far too advanced to be one dimensional in any regard. Evans needs to be able to attack hard closeouts from defenses and create successfully, whether that be for himself or others.
Though he doesn't turn the ball over much, Evans doesn't pass much either, meaning he is strictly a playfinisher at the moment. NBA defenses will be able to force him to put the ball on the floor and create, and if the shot isn’t falling he needs to be able to take advantage of his shooting gravity.
He has shown some ability to do this at a low volume, but consistency will be needed. Evans' slight frame also has some to do with this concern, as he often isn’t strong enough to bump and play through stronger defenders and can be a bit contact averse at times, leading to bad or forced shots.
These same issues may also impact his defensive ability at the professional level. However, while perhaps not known for his defense individually, Evans played on two Duke teams who were both top-5 in that regard across the NCAA (barttorvik.com). At 6 '6 with a +3 wingspan Evans possesses decent size for a wing defender, but will likely struggle with stronger offensive creators with his weight and frame.
Evans also isn’t the quickest laterally and can sometimes fall asleep behind the wheel. With only a 2.9% block percentage and 1.5% steal percentage (barttorvik.com), not much stock creation should be expected but overall he has shown he can be a good-to-decent team defender.
For the Detroit Pistons, the positive impact that off-ball shooting has shown to provide over the last two seasons explains the entire pitch for Isaiah Evans in the Motor City. Having high-volume off ball shooters next to Cade’s inherent gravity is imperative to create clearer driving lanes and scoring outlets.
The additions of Malik Beasley, Tim Hardaway Jr and Duncan Robinson over the last two seasons provided the evidence that high-volume three point shooting next to the Pistons current core is crucial for success and Evans can provide that in bunches. With good size, an improved scoring profile and winning pedigree, Isaiah Evans would fill a tremendous need around the Pistons core players.
5. Chris Cenac Jr, F/C, Houston
Standing at 6’11 240 lbs with a 7' 5 wingspan and a reported 40+ inch vertical jump, Chris Cenac Jr. is an athletic specimen. Cenac Jr. is a monster rebounder on both ends of the floor with shooting touch. However, he is still very much a project, as the production hasn’t materialized in certain areas or matched the potential that he has displayed at times. Though shooting big men with defensive versatility are an extremely valued archetype in the NBA, it may take some time to be realized with Cenac Jr., if it even ever does.
Cenac Jr. ’s NBA appeal at this moment is based on his potential, though as mentioned earlier, Cenac was an incredible rebounder throughout his freshman season. In his 37 games played for the Houston Cougars, Cenac Jr. has a 10.1% offensive rebounding percentage and at 26.1% defensive rebounding percentage (barttorvik.com), all while playing most of his minutes aside another big in JoJo Tugler. Cenac Jr. is aggressive attacking the glass, using his athleticism and size to take up space and rise up with two hands for the board. He isn’t afraid to put a body on someone and fight a bit down low.
Defensively, Cenac Jr. has all the tools to be a strong defender in the league, but as mentioned earlier a lot of this potential wasn’t always realized. While he has shown he can move his feet well, he can lack physicality and can be susceptible to bumps from ball-handlers or posting bigs.
Cenac Jr. also has good shooting touch, especially from the mid-range, where he shot 42.5% on 106 FGA, but also shot 33.3% from deep on 6.1 3PA per 100 possessions (barttorvik.com).
While his shot diversity could be cleaned up, these are all encouraging signs for future development.
The real issue with Cenac Jr. at the moment is lack of overall production outside of rebounding. While having the anthropometrics of a five, Cenac Jr. will likely be a four in the NBA, especially early in his career because of that aforementioned lack of physicality.
As mentioned earlier, he is able to move his feet well but his lack of rim deterrence and overall stock creation is of concern. With only a 2.3% block percentage (barttorvik.com), this may potentially limit his potential as a rim protector at the next level. Offensive players can drive and finish through him at times, which surely can be improved with NBA strength and conditioning, but his ball-tracking is a bit less developmental and a more inherent trait.
Cenac Jr. 's shot diet also needs much improvement, though this may be a product of Houston’s system. At the moment, Cenac Jr. takes a lot of deep twos and mid-range shots which will likely need to expand beyond the three-point line or turned to shots at the rim, where he is especially efficient. His FTr, which is at only 19.7% (barttorvik.com), is far too low for someone his stature and ability.
Cenac Jr. is also a poor playmaker and on-ball creator which limits his ceiling to a decent degree. As a four in the NBA, it is a must to be able to make quick passes along the perimeter and dump offs when attacking closeouts. At this moment, Cenac Jr. projects strictly as a play-finisher. With still plenty of time to grow in this regard, this will need to be a direct area of improvement for Cenac Jr.
For the Detroit Pistons, Chris Cenac Jr. offers an outline of an archetype that is sought after in today's NBA. Having a big that is able to space the floor while defending and rebounding on the backside is imperative for the current Pistons core. Despite being more of a project than other prospects in this range, Cenac Jr. offers a unique skillset that could prove to be quite impactful. While perhaps not being able to contribute immediately, the long term outcome and upside with Cenac Jr. is apparent.
6. Meleek Thomas, G, Arkansas
Meleek Thomas is a 6’4 189 lbs freshman guard who played in Arkansas this season. Thomas is a SHOOTER who has never seen a look he didn’t think he could make, but also possesses an interesting mix of connective playmaking and defensive upside.
As he played alongside potential top-10 pick guard Darius Acuff Jr. this season, Thomas was largely used as an off-ball creator, but with more experience and/or opportunity there may be potential for an uptick in on-ball usage down the line.
Shooting 9.6 3PA per 100 possessions and converting them at a 41.2% clip explains a lot of the appeal for Thomas. Pair these numbers alongside his 84.3% from the charity stripe and he is already one of the better freshman shooters in recent history.
Since 2008 only 12 other High Major college freshmen have reached these numbers, seven of which were drafted, including five top-20 selections (barttorvik.com). Though the majority assisted, Thomas’ ability to get shots off at all angles, regardless of the defensive pressure is staggering.
Despite his shorter stature, Thomas shot preparation allows him to get good looks over bigger defenders, often catching the ball in his shooting pocket with a lightning quick release. One of the traits that make Thomas a unique prospect is his playmaking ability.
Whether quick swing passes around the perimeter, drop-off passes after attacking closeouts, to the occasional PnR read, Thomas showed the ability to manipulate defenses with his scoring gravity. While the assist numbers don’t flash off the stat sheet, with a 13.2% assist percentage, Thomas was in the 100th percentile in TO% this season at 8.2% (draftbllr.com).
The potential scoring ability matched with his off-ball playmaking and turnover suppression creates an intriguing profile.
Standing at the aforementioned 6’4 189 lbs with a 6’7 wingspan, Thomas would be considered small for a non-primary guard in the association.
While there may be more on-ball juice that was reduced due to his role in his lone year at Arkansas, his lack of rim-pressure and efficiency leave concern. This season, Thomas attacked the rim 25.6% of the time and only finished at .85 PPP with a 23.1% FTr (draftbllr.com).
If he only projects as an off-ball shot creator, not only does this limit his overall ceiling but also may cause roster construction issues to supplement. As mentioned earlier, he also isn’t the most proven playmaker at the moment. While he flashed a multitude of reads this season, those flashes were nowhere near consistent enough to project much more at the next level.
Also, despite being a generally impressive defender his freshman season, showing the ability to guard at the POA, fight over screens, and create turnovers, his size may also be somewhat detrimental for Thomas on the defensive side of the ball. Bigger guards and forwards may be able to overpower Thomas, especially early in his career, and this limits his, and the teams, defensive versatility to quite an extent.
For the Detroit Pistons, Meleek Thomas would provide an instant need for shooting, while also having the ability AND experience playing alongside a primary shot creator. In his only year in Arkansas, he was used very similarly to how he would likely be used alongside Cade Cunningham and company.
Running off screens off-ball, shooting a high volume of C&S three pointers and then using his shooting gravity to further create for himself and others.
With the Pistons current roster construction Thomas would likely be able to survive potential size disadvantages on defense and his secondary creation and shot-making would fill a strong need on the other side of the ball.