Scouting Report: Keaton Wagler
Measureables/Overview
Height: 6’5
Weight:188
Wingspan: 6’6.25
Standing Reach: 8’4
Age: 19
Class: Freshman
Position: Combo Guard
Keaton Wagler kind of came out of nowhere for the Fighting Illini this season. Hailing from Shawnee, Kansas, he ended his high school career as a four star recruit. He committed to the University of Illinois to little fanfare, as no one expected him to make such an impact.
Wagler didn’t play for an illustrious AAU program, and didn’t play in the large high school national tournaments. He stayed within his community and proved himself wherever he did hoop. Here, I’m going to breakdown his strengths, weaknesses, and his potential NBA outcomes as his NBA dream becomes a reality on Tuesday.
The Breakdown
Scoring
The first thing you notice when watching Wagler is his spectacular three point shooting. This past season, Wagler shot 39.7% from deep on 5.9 attempts per game.
The raw numbers are obviously great, but it doesn’t tell the full story in terms of how good of a shooter he is. Wagler’s range and pull up shooting versatility makes him a special scoring prospect along with some other things that I’ll get into later. He was a 98th percentile pull-up three point shooter (hoop-explorer.com) coupled with the frequency being just as impressive as it is also 98th percentile.
Wagler also shines shooting off the catch, where his quick release and feel to relocate to open spots on the floor is incredibly valuable to his potential as more of an off ball scorer.
Wagler marries this shooting with his impressive ball handling and graceful footwork.
He is one of the smoothest players in the class, as he uses a combination of rocker steps, step backs, crossovers and spin moves to create space, the latter being his favorite.
Despite all of the great things he provides as a three point shooter, his scoring is currently capped by his lack of an in between game, struggles at the rim, frail frame, and relatively poor athletic profile in general. Wagler’s lack of burst and strength consistently shows up as a driver. Even with these physical limitations, he makes up for it with his wonderful handle and the beautiful pace that he plays with.
Wagler often tries to use his strength to create better shots for himself at the rim, but he just isn't strong enough for this to be his approach at the moment. There are many moments where he's stonewalled and forced to take difficult floaters and layups.
This is especially prevalent in the Michigan State game. Wagler does show moments of poise and creativity to get easier shots at the rim with pinoy steps.
The Michigan game is a good example of his growth in that area throughout the season. Wagler struggles to get past players in general due to the lack of burst. At 6’5, Wagler didn’t record a single dunk on the season and that lack of vertical pop was apparent at times in his drives to the rim.
This along with his inability to absorb contact due to his slight frame birthed his underwhelming rim finishing. His inability to consistently get past bigs in something that hinders his ability to creative advantages in these situations, although he’s able to make up for it in parts with his pull up shooting. I personally think that Wagler will improve as a mid range shooter, but his 34.8% on these shots is definitely a concern.
Passing
I want to preface the passing section with this: Wagler did a remarkable job of running Brad Underwood’s offense. It is incredibly valuable for a guard with the level of responsibility that Wagler had to not give the ball away.
Wagler dished out 4.2 assists per game while only turning the ball over 1.8 times per game (2.4 a/to rate). Illinois was the best spaced team in college basketball this past season and Wagler took advantage of this by consistently hitting poppers in p&r, getting downhill, and making passes to the corners and wings.
He made teams pay when they were in drop coverage with his passing, most teams couldn’t get back out to the Illini poppers or couldn’t rotate fast enough and Wagler made quick reads to get the best shot available. Wagler really does have the full package as a passer from dump off passes, lobs, skip passes, he’s a true dealer.
The Washington and UCLA games are my favorite passing performances from him. He’s just an incredibly fun passing and playmaking talent.
Defense & Rebounding
I’ll just cut to the chase, Keaton Wagler is not a good defender right now. The limitations that hamper him offensively also come back to bite him defensively with his lack of strength being the biggest issue at the moment.
Game after game you see his inability to absorb contact, whether that’s dealing with a bump from an opposing player, fighting through screens or taking on a box out. This is one tape about every game but it really stood out against physical athletic teams like Michigan and Michigan State.
Along with that, he doesn’t make up for this by generating stocks posting an underwhelming 1.3 blk% and a 1.7 stl% (barttorvik.com). Wagler has a tendency to ball watch and I wonder if he played any other sports growing up, because his ball tracking is very inconsistent. Wagler is an opportunistic rebounder and uses his size well. He reminds me of another first round guard from Illinois last year in Kasparas Jakucionis in that regard. Wagler averaged 5.1 rebounds per game this past season for the Illini.
My Thoughts & His Future
Wagler left as one of the most confusing evaluations for me. On one hand, his combination of feel, pull up three point shooting, and passing sounds like an incredible baseline for his floor, however the athletic concerns are real. How will he deal with more size and athleticism at the nba level?
Is his low percentage around the rim an effect of his lack of strength or an overall lack of touch inside the arc à la his mid range numbers. Will the offense ever be good enough to ignore the bad defense?
Who knows, but I generally like Wagler. 6’5 guards with his skill set do not grow on trees and although there are concerns, I believe that he will improve as a mid range shooter and Wagler spoke about gaining strength.
I believe that he will have a tougher road to becoming a star, but with added strength and a leap in overall touch, Wagler could become one of the best lead guards in basketball.
Comps: Ty Jerome, Austin Reaves